A few years ago, I used to argue this topic with Flash designers at web design agencies. It is nice to be proved right.
Users expectations of fast load times will rise, so increased bandwidth availability does not mean Flash will overtake HTML/CSS. The fastest load times users experience will become the expectation, and they will judge all other sites against that load time.
“A recent report from Akamai and Jupiter Research highlighted that online users are now so accustomed to speed, that the maximum length of time an average online shopper will wait for a page to load has come down to 4 seconds. Just a few years ago this was 8 seconds.“
It could be argued that, these days, most users will measure speed relative to the response time of Google, because that is the response time they have become most accustomed to seeing.